In November, Risk Aversion Sentiment Gradually Cooled Down, Putting Pressure on Silver Prices [SMM Analysis]

In November, silver prices were under pressure. At the beginning of the month, the US election saw Trump securing half of the votes early, winning the presidency. The market began engaging in "Trump trades," boosting the US dollar and putting pressure on silver prices. Subsequently, US Fed officials indicated that the Fed would slow down the pace of interest rate cuts, with other officials also stating that US interest rates in 2025 would be lower than this year. In the latter part of the month, tensions in the Russia-Ukraine and Middle East regions eased, with Israel and Lebanon accepting mediation and agreeing to a ceasefire, while Russian President Putin also expressed a desire for peace talks. By month-end, risk aversion sentiment significantly decreased, and overall silver prices showed a weak trend in November.

Silver prices fell in November, and the spot-futures price spread remained relatively large amid the relatively low silver T+D quotation. The market's poor liquidity in T+D, coupled with high fees and deferred charges, and the difficulty in forecasting the direction of deferred charges, led enterprises to lose some deferred charge income. Consequently, enterprises either closed positions in T+D or transferred inventory to futures, exerting some pressure on T+D prices. The large spot-futures price spread benefited trading enterprises in purchasing but was unfavorable for selling, leading to strong reluctance to sell among trading enterprises. Additionally, the downward price trend in November resulted in strong reluctance to sell among smelters, causing tight spot cargo and a relatively high level of spot premiums. Downstream restocking demand was low after meeting immediate needs, leading to price negotiations with upstream suppliers, causing occasional raw material tightness downstream. However, this did not affect overall market distribution. In the PV sector, December demand and operating rates vary across different stages, slightly impacting upstream suppliers. Therefore, December demand remains in a state of supply chain negotiation without a clear trend. In other industries, despite the price decline, the absolute price remained relatively high, leading downstream enterprises to make small-scale purchases, with spot order prices also being relatively high.